basketball picks archives
NBA GAME LINE picks
western conference finals
dallas mavericks vs gs warriors (-5)
(for game on 5/20)
Q's pick: gs warriors (-5)
As we go into Game 2, there are definitely some things that we see as defining this series, and it all starts with the fact thatThis series is now over!
confidence level: 2
eastern conference finals
miami heat vs boston celtics (-6.5)
(for game on 5/23)
Q's pick: boston celtics (-6.5)
The Boston Celtics bounce better than anyone. Period. I think they do it again, because I think that their chances of losing both games at home are very slim. Call it a 'gut feeling'. I know that people don't like to bet 'gut feelings', but sometimes it works. Besides that, the Celtics HAVE to have this game. Lay the 6.5 points, and take the Celtics.
confidence level: 2
eastern conference finals
boston celtics vs miami heat (-2)
(for game on 5/21)
Q's pick: boston celtics (-6)
With the series tied 1-1 heading back to Boston, will the "Garden" lead to more heat for Miami?? The Boston Celtics basically destroyed the Miami Heat in Game 2. The game was pretty much over by the end of the 3rd quarter, as the Celtics, with Marcus Smart and Al Horford back in the lineup, proved to be too much for the Heat. Although the Heat are the #1 Seed in the Eastern Conference, the Celtics have looked like the League's best all-around team since mid-January, and they seem to be hell-bent on proving that to everyone. Frankly, the Celtics are the best all-around team left in these playoffs, offensively and defensively, and I believe are likely win this series in 6 games. With the Celtics riding the "high" of Game 2, and now returning home to their crowd, I expect the Celtics to take a 2-1 edge in this series. Celtics by 8-10 points. Lay the 6 points, and take the Celtics.
confidence level: 2
western conference finals
gs warriors vs dallas mavericks (-1)
(for game on 5/24)
Q's pick: gs warriors (+1)
I will get to why I am taking the Warriors in Game 4, but before I do, I want to go back to things that we hit on, in regards to Game 2. It went as follows: "In Game 2, the Mavericks scored 72 point in the first half, yet they lost! Doncic scored 42 points, while Brunson poured in 31 along with Bullocks' 21 points, yet they lost. They had a 19-point lead more than once in the game, yet they lost. They shot 46.7% from outside the arch for the game, yet they lost. This series is now about having the psychological edge, and the Warriors have that edge. If you can't win scoring 117, while having all of those things go your way, you are in trouble. The Mavs are in trouble." We have often heard from MANY pundits that the Mavericks are going to struggle to win the higher scoring games, and if they are going to win some games against the Warriors, it has to be 'lower scoring' ones. Game 1 was 'lower scoring', and the Mavericks lost. Now let's briefly talk about Game 3. 209 points were scored, and I would have to categorize that as a 'lower scoring' game. The Mavericks didn't shoot very well (40% FG, and 28.9% from 3), but neither did the Warriors exactly (46.9% FG, and 34.4% from 3), and the Mavericks lost at home. I said 2 days ago: "This series is over! Yep...over. It may not even go 5 games. I think the Warriors go up 3-0 tonight, and put Dallas in a hole that they will not be able to climb out of." And now, going into Game 4, I believe even more that the Mavericks are done for. The Warriors seem to have little doubt that they can win these games against the Mavericks at any time, and the Mavericks seem to believe that also. No matter how well Dallas has played in any of the games, there always seems to be some doubt that creeps in, and the Warriors have been all too happy to take advantage of that doubt. At some point in tonight's game, doubt will creep in again for the Mavs, and Golden State will capitalize. It has been a great run for the Dallas Mavericks, but their season ends tonight. Take the Warriors +1.
confidence level: 3
western conference finals
gs warriors vs dallas mavericks (-3)
(for game on 5/22)
Q's pick: gs warriors (+3)
Live by the 3...die by the 3!! I could throw a bunch of stats at you, but I don't think that is really what the rest of this series is going to be about. In Game 2, the Mavericks scored 72 point in the first half, yet they lost! Doncic scored 42 points, while Brunson poured in 31 along with Bullocks' 21 points, yet they lost. They had a 19-point lead more than once in the game, yet they lost. They shot 46.7% from outside the arch for the game, yet they lost. This series is now about having the psychological edge, and the Warriors have that edge. If you can't win scoring 117, while having all of those things go your way, you are in trouble. The Mavs are in trouble. This series is over! Yep...over. It may not even go 5 games. I think the Warriors go up 3-0 tonight, and put Dallas in a hole that they will not be able to climb out of. Take the Warriors +3
confidence level: 3
eastern conference finals
miami heat vs boston celtics (-3.5)
(for game on 5/25)
Q's pick: boston celtics (-3.5)
Before this series began, I was very upfront in stating that I thought this series would be over in 6 games. I just think that the Celtics are a better team. With the series tied 2-2, the only way that I am correct in my prognostication, is for the Celtics to win the next 2 games. I am not moving off my original thought of the Celtics in 6, so I am taking the Celtics. I believe that this one is going to be close, but I think the Celtics win by at least two possessions. Celtics -3.5.
confidence level: 2
western conference finals
gs warriors vs dallas mavericks (+7)
(for game on 5/26)
Q's pick: gs warriors (-7)
Game 4 made me sick to my stomach. As I stated on Twitter (@GameDayQ), the Warriors had two completely different teams play during that game. The starters were arrogant, and didn't care to play defense or hustle. The 2nd-stringers (as they are often referred to) had fire in their bellies, played with hustle, pride and tenacity. The run that the bench players made to get the Warriors back in the game should have been an embarrassment to the Golden State starters. And, I believe it was. To add insult to injury, the second team got the Warriors SO CLOSE, that the starters got back in, only to fall short. Now the Warriors are back at home for Game 5, feeling a bit embarrassed (I believe), and ready to close this series out, as they SHOULD HAVE DONE in Game 4. Expect fire tonight from the Warriors, and expect the Mavs to miss shots that they couldn't seem to miss if they tried last game, as they shot 50% from the field, amd 46.5% from beyond the arc. The Warriors win AND cover the 7-point spread. The NBA Finals will play host to Golden State and ______? (Pssst...the Celtics)
confidence level: 3
eastern conference finals
boston celtics vs miami heat (-2.5)
(for game on 5/29)
Q's pick: boston celtics (-2.5)
Not much to say here, other than I have been on the Celtics winning this series (and the Eastern Conference) since the NBA Playoffs started. I am taking the same position that I took in Game 6, and that is that I am not about to jump off the train on this one now. I am still backing the Celtics to win this series, and they have to win this game in order to do that, and no game in this series has been within a 3 point spread. So, I am riding the Celtics -2.5, and holding my breath during the whole game. When the game is over, look for the purple dude suffocating in the corner, and let him know what happened. Please and thank you!
confidence level: 2
nba finals - game 1
boston celtics vs gs warriors (-3.5)
(for game on 6/2)
Q's pick: boston celtics (+3.5)
In order for the Celtics to win this series, they have to win a game at Golden State. It wouldn't shock me if that happened tonight in Game 1. I know that the Warriors have had a chance to rest up, and are 9-0 at home this postseason, averaging 120.8 points per 100 possessions, but now it is the defensive-minded Celtics in town, and they won't allow the Warriors to run free. If the Warriors make their shots tonight at home, I think they win. But they are going to have to shoot from a distance. If they struggle to hit the 3-pointers, they will lose outright. Either way, I like it to be close. Both teams are almost identical ATS, so that goes out the window. The spot screams Golden State, and that is why I am not listening to the screams. The whole world will be on the Warriors, but I am going to take the dog in this one. Take the Celtics +3.5, but sprinkling a little on the Celtics ML might not be the worst idea ever.
confidence level: 2
nba finals - game 2
boston celtics vs gs warriors (-4)
(for game on 6/5)
Q's pick: boston celtics (+4)
The Celtics handled business in Game 1, by overcoming several runs from the Warriors. Now the Warriors are already in must-win mode at home in Game 2. Is it conceivable that they lose Game 2 and head to Boston down 0-2 in a series that they were favored to win? It definitely IS conceivable. Maybe even likely. This deep into the playoffs, psychology plays as much a role in the end result, as talent does. The Warriors, who have carried themselves in a pretty egotistical manner throughout these playoffs, now have to prove that they are as good as they think they are. During the series against the Mavs, the Warriors were able to find that extra gear, and the Mavs never felt safe with the lead. Now the Warriors find themselves on the other side of that scenario, against a team that will refuse to go away. If doubt takes hold, Golden State will relegate themselves to taking ill-advised long-range shots, and find themselves in an 0-2 hole. Just as in Game 1, I expect the whole world to be on the Warriors, but I am going to take the dog AGAIN in this one. It would be silly to not take the 4 points, but you may want to sprinkle a little on the Celtics ML also. Take the Celtics +4.
confidence level: 2
nba finals - game 3
gs warriors vs boston celtics (-2.5)
(for game on 6/8)
Q's pick: celtics -2.5 (twitter)
Q's pick, reason, and confidence was posted to Twitter. This pick was based on the Celtics being undefeated in bounce back games. Loved the spot for them being back home.
confidence level: 2
NBA GAME TOTAL PICKS
western conference finals
dallas mavericks vs gs warriors (214.5)
(for game on 5/20)
Q's pick: over 216
Will the team with the defense please stand up!?! The Dallas Mavericks ranked 4th in the NBA during the regular season in points allowed (101.9 pts/game), but they didn't have to play the Golden State Warriors in the playoffs all year, who ranked 1st in points scored (114.2 pts/game). In round one, the Utah Jazz found some success against the Mavericks defense, as did the Suns in round 2. Now we are talking about an offense with considerable fire-power that loves to launch 3-pointers from everywhere on the court. In the Mavericks, we also have a team that tends to live, and die, by the 3. The Mavs ranked 10th in points per game (106.2), so they can light the scoreboard up at times, as well, and the Warriors have been struggling to stop anyone. It is almost as though they are a bit too bored to be bothered with playing defense against anyone. The Warriors struggled with the long ball in almost every game against the Grizzlies, and almost every game was tight down to the wire. With both of these teams seemingly okay with shooting 3-pointers and playing little defense, we could see some high-scoring games in this series. Take the over 214.5, and sit back and enjoy the rain falling from everywhere.
confidence level: 1
eastern conference finals
miami heat vs boston celtics (205.5)
(for game on 5/23)
Q's pick: over 205.5
I know Marcus Smart is out, but Kyle Lowry is back in. I title this little diddy "Doesn't it STILL feel too low? VOL. 4!" It just STILL feels too low. So...Game 1, the projected total was 203.5, and it ended up at 225.. For Game 2, Vegas adjusted it, 'all the way up' to 206.5. Clearly not enough, as the final score tallied 229. For Game 3, Vegas adjusts it again...'all the way up' to 207.5. Not enough. It was 209. I am taking the Over EVERY TIME if it stays under 210. And, since 205.5 is under 210, I am taking the Over 205.5. Final answer!! Over and out.
confidence level: 3
western conference finals
gs warriors vs dallas mavericks (215)
(for game on 5/26)
Q's pick: under 215
Game 1 went under the total. Game 2 went over the total. Game 3 went under the total. Game 4 went over the total. Do you see a pattern here? I believe in patterns. Patterns often develop into trends, and most bettors follow trends. And, for good reason, as following trends will, more often than not, help win you money. The Warriors will want to clinch this series on their home court, and not have to travel back tot Dallas, where anything can happen. The Warriors come out hot, play some defense, and get up far enough to deflate the Mavericks, making for a slow, methodical 4th quarter, keeping the score just low enough to creep under the 215 projected total. The pattern says under for tonight, and I am following the pattern. Take the Under 215.
confidence level: 2
eastern conference finals
boston celtics vs miami heat (207)
(for game on 5/21)
Q's pick: over 207
Doesn't it STILL feel too low? VOL. 3 It just STILL feels too low. So...Game 1, the projected total was 203.5, and it ended up at 225.. For Game 2, Vegas adjusted it, 'all the way up' to 206.5. Clearly not enough, as the final score tallied 229. Here we are for Game 3, Vegas adjusts it again...'all the way up' to 207.5. What am I missing here? Look...both teams are in the top 3 in fewest point against in the NBA, so there are going to be some defensive battles happening. I get it! But both teams have guys that can shoot 3s, and make them. Both teams have upped the pace, both teams have allowed their opponents to get 3-pointers off at a decent rate throughout these playoffs, and both of these teams are excellent at finding the open man. We have seen these things play out in the first 2 games of this series. I don't know how you don't take the over in this one, so I am taking the over. Over 207.5. Final answer!!
confidence level: 2
western conference finals
gs warriors vs dallas mavericks (215.5)
(for game on 5/24)
Q's pick: over 215.5
Game 1 went under the total. Game 2 went over the total. Game 3 went under the total. Do you see a pattern here? I believe in patterns. Patterns often develop into trends, and most bettors follow trends. And, for good reason, as following trends will, more often than not, help win you money. But aside from all of that, as much as I am sure that the Warriors would love to clinch this series on their own court, I also believe that they would like to be done with this series, and have an opportunity to rest up, as the Eastern Conference Finals will have at least 2 more games played before a winner can be determined. The Mavericks are going to come out desperate. I believe that they are going to play fast, and with reckless abandon, knowing that this is their last chance to stay alive. I do believe that the Warriors take the same fast approach, launching 3s from everywhere, and hit enough to drive the total over 215.5. Neither team shot well in Game 3, and the total still got to 209. I believe that the 3-pointers drop at a higher rate tonight, and this one goes over. Take the Over 215.5.
confidence level: 3
eastern conference finals
miami heat vs boston celtics (195.5)
(for game on 5/29)
Q's pick: over 195.5
Ok...so the Heat and Celtics hit the Over in Game 6 (and 4 out of 6 games in this series), and now the total has dropped all the way down to 195.5?!? It is now sitting at 6 points below the previous low (in this series) of 201.5. What does Vegas know?? Game 7 nerves? Offenses being more methodical? Defenses defending like their lives depended on it? I am almost ready to buy into all of that. Almost. To bet the under in a Game 7, especially one that low, seems blasphemous. It should be an exciting game, and I just can't imagine spending the whole game rooting for teams not to score. So I won't. If I have to lean one way or the other, I have to lean towards the over. Do I think it is going to be extremely close to that number? YES. But over it shall go.
confidence level: 3
western conference finals
gs warriors vs dallas mavericks (217)
(for game on 5/22)
Q's pick: over 217
Game 1 hit a total of 199. Game 2 hit 243. I believe that Game 3 is more likely to resemble Game 2. I expect the Mavericks to play better at home, make some adjustments, and be able to score again tonight. Having said that, I expect the Warriors to have to play faster, and match the Mavs on the scoreboard. It may barely go over, but I think it tops 217. I recommend taking the Over.
confidence level: 1
eastern conference finals
miami heat vs boston celtics (203.5)
(for game on 5/25)
Q's pick: over 203.5
I finally got smacked on the hand for taking the over in Game 4, but that was the first game in this series to go under the projected total, and I think it was a bit of a fluke. I trust the first 3 game results of the series more than I trust the fourth game. I also stated prior to last game that I will be taking the overs in this series on every projected total under 210. So, with this total matching Game 1's previous series low of 203.5, I am definitely taking the Over. And you should too!
confidence level: 3
nba finals - game 1
BOSTON CELTICS vs gs wARRIORS (214)
(for game on 6/2)
Q's pick: over 214
Fast, fast, fast. I think both teams are going to play fast. The Warriors will play fast because they want to, and the Celtics will play fast to match the Warriors intensity. The Celtics will aim to slow the Warriors down, but that is going to prove to be difficult. The Warriors shoot well at home, so I expect the shots to fall for them, but the Celtics can play fast and make shots also, so I think we see a bit of a track meet tonight to open this series. If it eclipses 214, which I think it will, it probably won't be by much. Over 214 in a tight one.
confidence level: 2
nba finals - game 2
BOSTON CELTICS vs gs wARRIORS (215)
(for game on 6/5)
Q's pick: over 215
Not changing this write-up from Game 1. If you didn't get a chance to read my thoughts on Game 1, you get your chance now. The total was 214, and now it is 215. Nothing changed enough for me to change my stance on the total. Game 1 write-up: Fast, fast, fast. I think both teams are going to play fast. The Warriors will play fast because they want to, and the Celtics will play fast to match the Warriors intensity. The Celtics will aim to slow the Warriors down, but that is going to prove to be difficult. The Warriors shoot well at home, so I expect the shots to fall for them, but the Celtics can play fast and make shots also, so I think we see a bit of a track meet tonight to open this series. If it eclipses 214, which I think it will, it probably won't be by much. Over 214 in a tight one. Game 2: Over 215
confidence level: 2
NBA Player pROP picks
warriors prop picks
andrew wiggins - over 14.5 points
jordan poole - over 16.5 points scored
stephen curry - 35+ points+rebounds+assists
andrew wiggins - 2+ three pointers made
STEPHEN CURRY - 3+ THREE POINTERS MADE
warriors prop picks
5/25/2022
andrew wiggins - over 14.5 points
andrew wiggins - 2+ three pointers made
stephen curry - 35+ points+rebounds+assists
STEPHEN CURRY - 3+ THREE POINTERS MADE
jordan poole - over 16.5 points scored
mavericks prop picks
5/25/2022
luka doncic - over 9.5 rebounds
luka doncic - 3+ three pointers made
Jalen Brunson - over 19.5 points
Dorian finney-smith - 6+ rebounds
reggie bullock - 3+ three pointers made
mavericks prop picks
5/26/2022
Jalen Brunson - over 19.5 points
jalen brunson - 2+ three pointers made
Dorian finney-smith - 6+ rebounds
reggie bullock - 3+ three pointers made
spencer dinwiddie - 2+ three pointers made
warriors prop picks
5/26/2022
andrew wiggins - over 16.5 points
andrew wiggins - 2+ three pointers made
stephen curry - 40+ points+rebounds+assists
jordan poole - over 15.5 points scored
celtics prop picks
Jason Tatum - over 26.5 total points
jason tatum - over 6.5 rebounds
jaylon brown - over 21.5 points scored
jaylon brown - 6.5 rebounds
marcus smart - 2+ 3-pointers made
marcus smart - over 6.5 assists
heat prop picks
jimmy butler - over 26.5 total points
jimmy butler - over 6.5 rebounds
victor oladipo - 2+ 3-pointers made
celtics prop picks
Jason Tatum - over 26.5 total points
jason tatum - over 6.5 rebounds
jason tatum - 3+ 3-pointers made
jaylon brown - over 23.5 points scored
jaylon brown - 7.5 rebounds
robert williams - 2+ blocks
grant williams - 2+ 3-pointers made
celtics prop picks
Jason Tatum - over 26.5 total points
jason tatum - over 5.5 rebounds
marcus smart - over 12.5 points
marcus smart - over 6.5 assists
Jaylon Brown - over 23.5 points
jaylon brown - 6.5 rebounds
al horford - 10+ rebounds
al horford - 2+ blocks
