GameDay Mafia

baseball picks archives

may 2022

MLB GAME LINE Picks

cincinnati reds @ toronto blue jays (-1.5)

(for game on 5/21)

Q's pick: blue jays -1.5 (-130)

The juice is fairly high (-130) while having to give up 1.5 runs, but I think that we might be looking at a bloodbath today. Hunter Greene was AWESOME in his last outing, but I don't think he repeats that today. Meanwhile, on the other side, Alek Manoah (4-1, 1.71 ERA) has been spectacular. I think that Greene comes back down to earth, and the Blue Jays win this one handily. Take the Jays laying the 1.5 runs.

confidence level: 1

cincinnati reds @ toronto blue jays (-1.5)

(for game on 5/22)

Q's pick: blue jays -1.5

The Blue Jays are just too much for the flailing Reds, and they send Kikuchi to the mound today with his 3.38 ERA. The Reds have called up Charlie Ashcraft to make his first major league start today, after selecting his contract on Friday. When making your first MLB start, I am pretty confident that doing it on the road, against a VERY dangerous Blue Jays team, is NOT how you want to start it. This is an easy one for me. Take the Jays -1.5 in this one!

confidence level: 3

texas rangers @ houston astros (+1.5)

(for game on 5/21)

Q's pick: astros -1.5 (-110)

Verlander (5-1, 1.38 ERA) has been nothing short of spectalar so far. At home against a matchup with Jon Gray (1-1, 5.73 ERA) makes for a potential blowout, unless Verlander struggles for some reason, or the Astros bats go cold. I am going with the trend here, and the trend is screaming at me to take the Astros -1.5!

confidence level: 2

tampa bay rays @ baltimore orioles (+1.5)

(for game on 5/22)

Q's pick: tB rays -1.5

Kluber (1-2, 4.29 ERA) vs Watkins (0-1, 5.10 ERA). This pick is less about the pitchers than it is about the hitters. Tampa Bay has more offensive fire power, and that is the reason that I am taking the Rays today. Short and sweet.

confidence level: 3

tampa bay rays @ baltimore orioles (+1.5)

(for game on 5/21)

Q's pick: tB rays -1.5 (+120)

The Rays are going to start Jeffrey Springs (1-1, 1.66 ERA) in this one. The Orioles are sending Kyle Bradish (1-2, 5.06 ERA) to the mound. The Rays are probable pissed from yesterday's meltdown, and I just don't belive that the Orioles can keep forcing extra innings. Taking the Rays -1.5 in this one!

confidence level: 3

washington nationals @ milwaukee brewers (-1.5)

(for game on 5/22)

Q's pick: brewers -1.5

I am just going to leave the last 2 day's write-up below, as STILL nothing has changed, except for Peralta heading to the mound for the Brew Crew, and I just don't think that the Nationals can hit him. This is one of the worst lineups in baseball, and I will let you guess as to which team I am speaking of. I will keep this short. These 2 teams are headed completely in opposite directions. Only 2 teams have given up more runs that the Nationals, and those teams are the Reds and the Rockies. I think the Nationals get taken behind the woodshed tonight, so I am taking the Brewers giving up the 1.5 runs.

confidence level: 3

washington nationals @ milwaukee brewers (-1.5)

(for game on 5/21)

Q's pick: brewers -1.5 (-105)

I am just going to leave yesterday's write-up below, as nothing has changed since yesterday. Enjoy! This is one of the worst lineups in baseball, and I will let you guess as to which team I am speaking of. I will keep this short. These 2 teams are headed completely in opposite directions. Only 2 teams have given up more runs that the Nationals, and those teams are the Reds and the Rockies. I think the Nationals get taken behind the woodshed tonight, so I am taking the Brewers giving up the 1.5 runs. Short and simple.

confidence level: 3

cOLORADO ROCKIES @ PITTSBURGH PIRATEs (-140)

(for game on 5/23)

Q's pick: ROCKIEs ML (+110) dk

This is a battle of two below-average teams with two very average pitchers. Chad Kuhl is taking the hill with his 3.86 ERA, and he is going against JT Brubaker with his 5.50 ERA. The Pirates aren't any better at home than the Rockies are on the road, and I give the edge to the Rockies from an offensive standpoint. I don't have the utmost faith in either team, but I lean towards the Rockies today. Take the Rockies on the money line in this one!

confidence level: 2

la dodgers @ washington nationals (+1.5)

(for game on 5/23)

Q's pick: dodgers -1.5 (-150) dk

Dodgers and Nationals. Do I really need to say much else? Tyler Anderson (4-0) has been throwing the ball very well so far this year, outside of getting smacked around by the Phillies for 7 runs on 5/12. Joan Adon...not so much, as he carries a record of 1-7 into this one, and an ERA of 6.38. This one could go sideways fast. Dodgers -1.5. Run fast to the window. Now!!

confidence level: 3

kansas city royals @ arizona diamondbacks (-1.5)

(for game on 5/24)

Q's pick: diamondbacks -1.5 (+100) dk

Zac Gallen (3-0, 1.14 ERA) has been nothing short of tremendous so far this year, has an even lower ERA at home (0.75), and is taking on a Royals team that at 14-27 just hasn't been good. The Royals will start Jonathan Heasley ( 0-2, 4.32 ERA), in search of his first win, but I just don't think that he gets it tonight. Look for Christian Walker to go yard for Arizona, adding insult to injury. Diamondbacks by 2 runs or more.

confidence level: 2

la dodgers @ arizona diamondbacks (+1.5)

(for game on 5/26)

Q's pick: dodgers -1.5 (-115) dk

The Dodgers win by 2 in a high-scoring affair. The lean is due to the effective Dodgers offense that seems to be getting it going.

confidence level: 3

baltimore orioles @ new york Yankees (-1.5)

(for game on 5/23)

Q's pick: yankees -1.5 (-140) dk

Gerrit Cole wasn't spectacular against these same Orioles his last time out on 5/18, only striking out 5 in 7 innings and giving up 2 runs. Having said that, that game was in Baltimore, and I see it as a bit of an outlier. I think he comes back strong today against a Jordan Lyles-led Orioles squad that has been playing well as of late, but probably above their heads. The Yankees have been struggling to beat any team by more than a run, it seems, but I believe that today is the day. Yankees -1.5 runs. Money in the bank!

confidence level: 3

cOLORADO ROCKIES @ PITTSBURGH PIRATEs (-120)

(for game on 5/24)

Q's pick: ROCKIEs ML (+100) dk

I picked this same money line yesterday and was wrong. The Pirates bested the Rockies in a 2-1 affair with the game-winning run coming in the bottom of the 8th of a 1-1 affair, and the closer for the Pirates, Bednar, kept the Rockies off the scoreboard in the 9th to finish off the victory. I am going back to the well on this one. I think that the Rockies get it done here. Take the Rockies on the money line.

confidence level: 2

kansas city royals @ minnesota twins (-1.5)

(for game on 5/26)

Q's pick: twins -1.5 (+115) dk

The Twins are playing better than just about every other team in baseball right now, and they keep rolling tonight. The Twins have been very good at home, while the Royals have been miserable on the road. Confidence is high in taking the Twins tonight.

confidence level: 3

kansas city royals @ minnesota twins (-1.5)

(for game on 5/26)

Q's pick: twins -1.5 (+115) dk

confidence level: 3

la dodgers @ washington nationals (+1.5)

(for game on 5/24)

Q's pick: dodgers -1.5 (-140) dk

After the 10-1 drubbing of the Nationals yesterday, the Dodgers are coming back for more as they send Walker Buehler (5-1, 2.89 ERA) to the mound, and the Nationals try to counter with Josiah Gray (4.3, 4.36 ERA). Gray was a Dodger just last year, and although he was traded to the Nats, he has tremendous upside. He has tremendous downside as well, as he often struggles with his control. The Dodgers are NOT a team that you want to struggle with control against. The Dodgers lineup is dangerous from top to bottom, and the Nationals just don't have the talent to be competitive. I think that Dodgers drub Washington again tonight, and I will be backing that. Take the Dodgers -1.5 runs.

confidence level: 3

boston red sox @ chicago white sox (+1.5)

(for game on 5/26)

Q's pick: red sox ml (-130) dk

Wacha has been great, and the Red Sox seem to be hitting, and Keuchel has been ragged, and the White Sox have been far from spectacular. The Red Sox will do just enough to win tonight. Take the Red Stockings.

confidence level: 2

SAN FRANCIscO GIANTS @ CINCINNATI REDS (+1.5)

(for game on 5/27)

Q's pick: GIANTS -1.5

It may not look like Carlos Rodon (4-3, 3.43 ERA) has been the Carlos Rodon that we have been accustomed to over the last 2 years, but he is still elite. Had he not gotten roughed up for 8 runs in St Louis against the Cardinals, his numbers would look considerably better. He is carrying a WHIP of 1.16, and a 1.41 K/IP ratio, into this contest against a Reds squad (14-30) that has been playing a little better as of late, but leads the majors in runs against at 245, with no answer for that in sight. The Reds are sending Ashcraft to the mound, who showed some promise in his 1st start, going 4.1 innings, surrendering 4 hits, striking out 3, and walking 2. I am not convinced that he fairs that well today. Taking the Giants -1.5 runs.

confidence level: 2

boston red sox @ baltimore orioles (+1.5)

(for game on 5/27)

Q's pick: red sox -1.5

The Red Sox are 8-2 over their last 10, and seem to have gotten it together. The Orioles are 4-6 over their last 10, and seem to be proving that they cannot beat anyone except the Yankees. Whitlock (1-1, 3.58 ERA) has been solid for the Sox, while Bradish (1-3, 5.74 ERA) has not for the Orioles. I think Boston keeps rolling at home, and covers fairly easily. Red Sox -1.5 runs.

confidence level: 3

pittsburgh pirates @ san diego padres (-1.5)

(for game on 5/27)

Q's pick: padres -1.5

It is a team operating on pennies vs a team bathing in riches. Jose Quintana has been excellent, and has kept the Pirates in pretty much every game that he has taken the mound. On the road against one of the best teams in baseball is a tall task though, and I think this is where he gets a bit roughed up. He is matched up against Sean Manaea, who has been a bit more pedestrian of late, but he just has an army of talent behind him. The Padres prove to be too much for the Pirates, and cover the 1.5 runs. Padres -1.5 runs.

confidence level: 3

la dodgers @ arizona diamondbacks (+1.5)

(for game on 5/27)

Q's pick: dodgers -1.5

The Dodgers are just crushing the ball as of late, and look almost unstoppable. I expect both Pepiot and Bumgartner to give up a few runs, but I just do not see an avenue for the Diamondbacks to offensively hang with the Dodgers, unless Christian Walker goes deep multiple times with men on base. I may also be considering the Over 10 runs in this one, but I definitely like the Dodgers laying 1.5 runs.

confidence level: 3

MLB GAME TOTAL Picks

cincinnati reds @ toronto blue jays (8)

(for game on 5/20)

Q's pick: over 8 runs

Because why not?!? Charlie Morton (2-3, 4.93 ERA) is 75 years old (ok...38), and Trevor Rogers has a 4.45 ERA on the season, and a 10.32 ERA at home! And yes...I typed that correctly. Fire it up!! Over 7!! Book it!

confidence level: 1

cOLORADO ROCKIES @ PITTSBURGH PIRATEs (7.5)

(for game on 5/23)

Q's pick: over 7.5 runs

For the same reasoning that I used to pick the winner of this game, I am using for taking the over in this matchup. Both squads can put runs on the board, and neither pitcher has been very effective at keeping runs off the board. Today that might change, but I am betting that it doesn't. Recommending the Over 7.5 projected run total.

confidence level: 2

chicago cubs @ cincinnati reds (8.5)

(for game on 5/25)

Q's pick: over 8.5 runs

Both of these teams are hitting well enough to take advantage of the pitchers on the mound. Kyle Hendricks (2-4, 4.89 ERA) for the Cubs, and Luis Castillo (0-2, 4.60 ERA) probably won't be putting up much resistance. There were 11 runs scored in the first game of this series, and 15 runs in the second game. Sooner or later these teams are going to struggle to score, but I am not sold on that being tonight. Leaning Over 8.5.

confidence level: 2

milwaukee brewers @ st louis cardinals (7)

(for game on 5/27)

Q's pick: over 7 runs

Maybe it goes under 7 tonight. Maybe it does. I kinda hope that it does, as I have Woodruff going tonight on a fantasy baseball squad of mine. But Woodruff has been getting knocked around almost every time he steps on the field, and Dakota Hudson is far from stellar. Both squads have potent offenses, and I think that at least one of them will show up enough to eclipse what is a low run total projection of 7. Take the Over 7 total runs scored.

confidence level: 2

st louis cardinals @ pittsburgh pirates (8.5)

(for game on 5/21)

Q's pick: over 8.5 runs

On Friday, these teams met, and combined to scrore 8 runs, and the Cardinals had Wainwright on the mound. On Saturday, the 2 teams combined for 9 runs, and the Pirates had Quintana on the mound. Today, the Cardinals have Steven Matz (3-3, 6.03 ERA) on the mound, going against Bryce Wilson (0-2, 5.67 ERA). Frankly, I think this run total might be a run too low. Goldschmidt looks to be taking the day off for the Cardinals, but I believe that both teams are able to score in this one. Recommend taking the Over 8.5 runs.

confidence level: 2

milwaukee brewers @ san diego padres (7)

(for game on 5/24)

Q's pick: over 7 runs

We have two good pitchers going tonight, in Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell, so I can see why this total is low, but I believe that it is too low. Both the Brewers and the Padres have offenses that can be electric, and both teams do a great job of manufacturing runs. These teams are likely playoff teams, and I am thinking that we are going to see a playoff atmosphere tonight in San Diego. It is crap shoot as to who wins this one, but I am banking on there being at least 7 runs scored. It's going to probably be very close though.

confidence level: 2

la dodgers @ arizona diamondbacks (8.5)

(for game on 5/26)

Q's pick: over 9.5 runs

White and Castellanos both get tagged, and are out of the game early, but the damage has already been done. Enough damage to lean towards the Over 9.5.

confidence level: 2

washington nationals @ milwaukee brewers (-1.5)

(for game on 5/22)

Q's pick: over 8 runs

I expect the Brewers to come close to scoring 8 runs themselves, and I would think that the Nationals find a way to put 1 or 2 on the board. This might not clear 8 runs by much, but it doesn't have to. Take the over.

confidence level: 2

chicago cubs @ cincinnati reds (8.5)

(for game on 5/24)

Q's pick: over 8.5 runs

Both Marcus Stroman (1-4, 4.88 ERA) and Tyler Mahle (2-4, 5.23 ERA) have been handing out runs like candy this year, and I don't see any reason for that to change tonight. Both teams find themselves on the wrong side of high scoring games, so it will be curious to see which of these teams comes out on top.

confidence level: 2

toronto Blue jays @ la angels (7.5)

(for game on 5/26)

Q's pick: over 7.5 runs

Ryu gets tagged for several, Ohtani gives up a couple, and the bullpens cough up the rest. Over 7.5 runs.

confidence level: 2

detroit tigers @ minnesota twins (8)

(for game on 5/23)

Q's pick: over 8 runs

The last 4 Twins games have gone over this total. One of those games was against the Athletics, and the other three were against the Royals. The Tigers are sending Elvin Rodriguez (0-0, 13.50 ERA) to the hill, and the Twins are sending Chris Archer (0-1, 4.10) to the mound, and Archer has a 5.40 ERA at home. The Twins are seeing the ball well, and I think that continues today. Recommending the Over 8.

confidence level: 2

texas rangers @ la angels (9)

(for game on 5/25)

Q's pick: under 9 runs

Glenn Otto (1-2, 5.55 ERA) and Reid Detmers (2-1, 4.15 ERA) are squaring off in Anaheim, in what should be a high scoring affair, but it won't be. I think that this run total has these 2 pitcher's ERAs baked in, and I believe it to be misleading. Otto is 1-1 on the road with a 2.81 ERA, and has only given up more than 2 runs ONCE, as he was mashed for 8 runs against the Red Sox, and that game skyrocketed his ERA. Reid Detmers hasn't given up more than 3 runs since 4/15, and has a 1.96 ERA at home so far this year. I see 6 to 7 runs scored, maybe, but if these pitchers get settled in, I just don't see it getting to 9. I recommend taking Under 9 runs scored.

confidence level: 2

la dodgers @ arizona diamondbacks (10)

(for game on 5/27)

Q's pick: over 10 runs

While we correctly picked the over for this matchup yesterday, we basically had to rely on the Dodgers to carry the load. I think that the Diamondbacks get in on the action a little more tonight, which is the ONLY reason that I would even recommend the Over. Pepiot hasn't made it to the 5th inning yet, and has been somewhat erratic with his control. If he continues to walk batters, it will only take a big hit or two for the Diamondbacks to put up some runs, prior to Pepiot's likely early exit. I don't feel great about it, but I do feel good about it. Take the over 10 runs.

confidence level: 1

toronto Blue jays @ la angels (8)

(for game on 5/27)

Q's pick: over 8 runs

We hit the over on this game yesterday, covering by a half run. That was close! I don't think tonight will be as close. Tonight's pitchers aren't quite as dominant as what we saw yesterday, and both squads are still offensively stout. With the wind blowing out to center at 9 mph, I think we see a few leave the park. Take the Over 8.