GameDay Mafia

baseball pick archives

june 2022

MLB GAME LINE Picks

washington nationals @ cincinnati reds (-1.5)

(for game on 6/2)

Q's pick: redS ML (-130)

No write-up

confidence level: 2

st louis cardinals @ chicago cubs (+1.5)

(for game on 6/2)

Q's pick: cardinals ml (-110)

No write-up

confidence level: 3

arizona diamondbacks @ pittsburgh pirates (+1.5)

(for game on 6/3)

Q's pick: pirates ml (+100)

This line makes no sense to me. JT Brubaker has an ERA of 0.00, and a WHIP of 1.29 in his last 2 starts, and the Diamondbacks (4-6 over their last 10) are heading in the wrong direction. The projections on this game are about even, so I am taking the home team, with the better pitcher, at "plus money", and nobody is going to stop me. I am doing this because I am "grown". If YOU are grown, take the Pirates ML at +100.

confidence level: 2

chicago White sox @ tampa bay rays (-1.5)

(for game on 6/3)

Q's pick: white sox ML (+150)

I am hanging from a ledge on this one, but hear me out. Davis Martin is on the mound for the White Sox tonight. Who?? Exactly. Davis Martin has had 1 start for the Sox, against Kansas City, and pitched very well (5 innings, 1 hit, 7 Ks, and no runs allowed). "But that was Kansas City", you say. Hey...I told you that I was hanging from a ledge on this one, but I am playing a hunch. Shane McClanahan (5-2, 2.01 ERA) has been awesome for the Rays. Too awesome?? Probably. McClanahan is arguable one of the best starting pitchers in baseball right now statistically, but every pitcher gets taken behind the woodshed at some point, and I think that the White Sox have extended that invitation to Shane personally. The White Sox are better than their 23-26 record, and are bound to wake up at some point. Why not tonight? I am banking on tonight being that night. McClanahan accepts the "woodshed invite" from the Sox, gets his butt whooped, and the Sox win outright at +150. Take the Sox. Live dangerously. Come out on the ledge with me! It's safe! (It's actually probably not safe at all, but do it anyway.)

confidence level: 1

seattle mariners @ texas rangers (+1.5)

(for game on 6/3)

Q's pick: mariners ML (-115)

I trust Logan Gilbert more than I trust Dane Dunning. Period. Seattle at -1.5 is too high, so I will take Seattle on the ML at a -115, and live with that one way or another. I don't really trust either team much, but I am feeling daring today.

confidence level: 2

detroit tigers @ new york yankees (-1.5)

(for game on 6/3)

Q's pick: yankeeS -2.5 (+125)

Gerrit Cole (4-1, 3.12 ERA) is going to eat Tiger tonight hosting Detroit. Elvin Rodriguez (0-0, 6.17 ERA) is still not good. And, he is worse on the road(0-0, 7.80 ERA). He pitches to contact, and that is a bad sign against a team that can hit it a very long way. The Tigers however, are going to be spending the evening swinging and missing. I see 9-10 strikeouts for Cole, no more than a run for the Tigers, and a nice big blowout for the Yanks. Take the Yankees -2.5 runs at +125.

confidence level: 3

detroit tigers @ new york yankees (-1.5)

(for game on 6/4)

Q's pick: yankeeS -3 (+115)

Different day, same result. I think that the Yankees bury the Tigers again today, but this time it is Luis Severino getting the honor of taking home the "W". Severino (3-1, 3.38 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) gets his turn against a Detroit team that is void of much talent. Severino is 2-0 and has a lower ERA at home, and the outlook for Detroit in this series just keeps getting worse. Beau Brieske (0-4, 5.25 ERA) is tasked with trying to hold down the Yankees, who are 8-2 in their last 10 games, and own the league's 2nd best +/- ratio in runs scored to runs against. Take the Yankees -3 runs at +115. This is Blood Bath II.

confidence level: 3

arizona diamondbacks @ pittsburgh pirates (-1.5)

(for game on 6/4)

Q's pick: pirates ml (-115)

In Roansy Contreras I trust. Ok...so maybe that isn't 100% accurate, but I definitely trust him more than I trust Zach Davies. I favored the Pirates to win yesterday's matchup, but they couldn't get it done. I think that changes today, so we are going back to the well. Just hoping that we don't drown in it. I don't believe in the Pirates enough to lay the 1.5 runs, but I do like Pirates on the ML.

confidence level: 2

new york mets @ los angeles dodgers (-1.5)

(for game on 6/4)

Q's pick: dodgers -1.5 (+105)

This is strength on strength. These two teams are the best that the National League has to offer, and are likely to be the two teams fighting each other for a trip to the World Series. (See our MLB Futures Picks later today.) The difference in this game is the pitching matchup. Walker Buehler vs David Peterson. Buehler is arguably the ace of a VERY talented pitching staff, while Peterson might be one of the most fortunate pichers in baseball. The Mets have won Peterson's last 5 starts, but mainly because they are scoring at will during those same starts. They have outscored their opponents 26-8 in Peterson's last 2 starts. Peterson gave up 4 earned in 4.2 innings last time out against the Nationals, and struck out only 1, in a game that the Mets won 13-5. If he pitches to contact tonight, Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner, and company are going to chase him early, and it will be too late, because Beuhler is going to make sure of that. The Mets are awesome, but they won't be awesome tonight. Take the Dodgers -1.5.

confidence level: 3

san diego padres @ milwaukee brewers (-1.5)

(for game on 6/4)

Q's pick: padres ML (+110)

I believe in MacKenzie Gore. I just do. And, for good reason. He has done nothing but shine this year, as he sits at 3-1 with an ERA of 1.71, and WHIP of 1.07. He gets a really tough matchup today against the Brewers, but the Brewers aren't unbeatable, as the Padres proved in their 7-0 victory over the "Brew Crew" yesterday. Aaron Ashby (1-0) pitched 6 complete against the Cubs on 5/30 striking out 12, but that has been his longest outing yet, as his previous longest outing was 5.2 innings against these very same Padres back on 5/25, where he gave up 4 hits, 1 unearned run, struck out 5 and walked 3. He won't have the same success today. Take the Padres to win outright.

confidence level: 2

boston red sox @ oakland athletics (+1.5)

(for game on 6/4)

Q's pick: athletics ML (+120)

Nick Pivetta pitched at an elite level in May. Elite. He was 4-1, with a 2.11 ERA, an OBA of .187, and had a 35/6 K/BB rate in the month of May. And, like David Peterson of the Mets, he has gotten tremendous run support. The Red Sox have outscored their opponents 28-5 in his last 2 starts. To be honest, he hasn't needed the support, as he has been unreal on the mound. Today, I am introducing Nick Pivetta to the month of June. Pivetta (4-4, 3.95 ERA) has always been prone to have that outing where he falls apart. I am announcing that today is that day. Oakland is sending Paul Blackburn to the hill, who is 5-1 on the year with a 2.15 ERA. This is a win-able game for the A's, and they get it done. Take Oakland to win.

confidence level: 2

detroit tigers @ new york yankees (-1.5)

(for game on 6/5)

Q's pick: yankeeS -3 (+145)

Different day, same result, Volumn II. I think that the Yankees bury the Tigers again for the 3rd day in a row, but today they get back to scoring runs. The Tigers have 4 total hits in the last 2 days, and will look to add to that total today. Will they?? Yes. By a lot?? No. I see to 4-5 hits today against Jordan Montgomery (1-1, 3.04 ERA), but not much beyond that. They MAY even scrape a run or two together, which is why I like the Over 8 runs also in this one. Rony Garcia (0-1, 4.70 ERA) has made it to the 5th inning in one game only, and that was in a loss to the Twins on 5/31, where he gave up 7 hits, 6 earned runs, struck out 7, and walked 1. Look for a similar result against the Yankees. Everything about this series spelled doom for the Tigers, but they are going to experience pain once more before this series is over. Take the Yankees -3 runs at +145. This is Blood Bath, Volumn III.

confidence level: 3

arizona diamondbacks @ pittsburgh pirates (+1.5)

(for game on 6/5)

Q's pick: dbacks -1.5 (+110)

Zac Gallen (4-0) should keep this Pirates offense in check. Gallen has an ERA of 2.32, but his ERA on the road is even better, at a miniscule 1.76. The Pirates stole one yesterday on a 2-run long ball, in the bottom of the 9th, to win 2-1. They won't be as lucky today, as they struggle to figure out Gallen. Expect the Diamondbacks to keep Zach Thompson in trouble, and win this one fairly easily. Diamondbacks -1.5.

confidence level: 3

san francisco giants @ miami marlins (+1.5)

(for game on 6/5)

Q's pick: giants ml (-125)

Jakob Junis has been stingy. He was a great acquisition for the Giants, and has proved to be a valuable commodity in their starting rotation. He is 2-1 overall, with a 2.68 ERA, and 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA on the road. Miami can light a scoreboard up at times, but I don't think that they can outscore the Giants today, especially if Braxton Garrett gets knocked around. This will be Garrett's 1st start this year, but he was 1-2 with a 5.03 ERA last year. He isn't welcomed back warmly by the Giants. Giants -1.5

confidence level: 3

houston astros @ kansas city royals (+1.5)

(for game on 6/5)

Q's pick: astros -3 (+140)

Framber Valdez is on fire, and this Royals squad is NOT the team to slow him down. Jonathan Heasley is in for a long day. I am not going to get into all the reasons as to why this should be a blowout, but it definitely should, as these are two completely different teams, and one of them is really NOT good. Astros -3.

confidence level: 2

st louis cardinals @ chicago cubs (+1.5)

(for game on 6/5)

Q's pick: cardinals -1.5 (+115)

Wainwright >Steele. Wainwright may not be what he once was, but he is still pretty darn good, which is evident by his 2.75 ERA, and he has the better offensive team behind him. Steele is 1-5 with a 5.40 ERA, and he will be tested tonight. The Cubs have been putting up a good fight, but they come up short again tonight at home, against a much better team. Cards -1.5

confidence level: 2

toronto blue jays @ kansas city royals (+1.5)

(for game on 6/6)

Q's pick: blue jays -1.5 (-120)

This pick is more about the offenses these teams possess than it is about the pitchers going today. Ross Stripling (1-1, 4.22 ERA) and Daniel Lynch (2-4, 4.81 ERA) are on the hill today, but this game could be played in someone's kitchen, and the Royals are likely to lose. Even in their own kitchen. The Blue Jays sit at 31-22 while the Royals sit at 17-35. There is power up and down the Jays lineup, while Kansas City's lineup is basically void of it. Don't overthink this. Take the Jays -1.5. Even if it doesn't hit, you will have been on the right side.

confidence level: 3

seattle mariners @ houston astros (-1.5)

(for game on 6/6)

Q's pick: astros -1.5 (+110)

What has happened to Robbie Ray?? Ray (4-6, 4.93 ERA) has been a shell of himself this year, as he has given up 3 or more runs in his last 4 starts. He has been horrible on the road (2-4, 5.86 ERA), including going 0-2 in his last 2 road starts against the Orioles and the Athletics. Today he visits the Houston Astros that hit to contact, don't strike out much, and have better talent filling the dugout. If Cristian Javier (3-2, 2.41 ERA) pitches well today, the Mariners are in trouble. Take the Astros. This could be a blowout.

confidence level: 3

new york mets @ san diego padres (+1.5)

(for game on 6/6)

Q's pick: mets ml (-105)

I know that the Mets are in the midst of a tough road trip, just having come off a grueling 4-game series against the Dodgers in LA, but the Mets are currently the better team. And frankly, I believe that Carrasco is better than Snell right now, so this aligns favorably for the Mets. Although I love the Mets getting 1.5 runs, the juice (-210) is too ridiculous to take that, so instead we like the Mets to win outright with that money line at -105. Take the Mets to win in this one.

confidence level: 2

MLB run TOTAL Picks

boston red soxs @ oakland athletics (7)

(for game on 6/3)

Q's pick: over 7 runs

One of these pitchers is going to get lit up like a Christmas tree tonight. Not sure which one, but one is, and it will push the total over 7 runs! Take the Over.

confidence level: 3

atlanta braves @ colorado rockies (11)

(for game on 6/3)

Q's pick: under 11 runs

I know this game is in Colorado, but both Fried and Kuhl are better pitchers are better than this projected run total would indicate. I expect some scoring, but it will fall short of 11. Take the Under 11 runs scored.

confidence level: 2

boston red soxs @ oakland athletics (7.5)

(for game on 6/4)

Q's pick: over 7.5 runs

It took until very late in the game yesterday to cover the Over, but they got there. We don't care how we get it, just that we get it. It is a half-run higher today, but I think the Over hits again. But barely, so bet with caution. 8-9 total runs today. Take the Over 7.5

confidence level: 1

minnesota twins @ toronto blue jays (9)

(for game on 6/4)

Q's pick: over 9 runs

I don't completely trust either pitcher, and these two teams can both score. Bundy (2-3, 4.84 ERA) can get lit up like the 4th of July, and Berrios (2-3, 5.62 ERA) often struggles with his control. With both pitchers prone to getting beaten around, I like the over 9 runs in this one. Don't overthink it.

confidence level: 2

new york yankees @ detroit tigers (8)

(for game on 6/5)

Q's pick: over 8 runs

After putting up 13 runs on Friday, the Yankees struggled to put 3runs on the board yesterday, with 2 of those coming off of home runs from Judge and Rizzo. I think that Yankees get back to putting up runs today. I see a 7-2, or an 8-1 game today. I recommend taking the over 8 runs.

confidence level: 2

boston red soxs @ oakland athletics (7.5)

(for game on 6/5)

Q's pick: over 7.5 runs

We are 2-for-2 over the last two days taking the Over in this matchup, and we believe that it warrants a third look. Neither Rich Hill (1-3, 4.85 ERA) or Frankie Montas (2-5, 3.20 ERA) have been very good, and I don't see them being very good today either. Both teams can score, and they do today. Take the Over 7.5 runs.

confidence level: 3

minnesota twins @ toronto blue jays (8.5)

(for game on 6/5)

Q's pick: under 8.5 runs

These are two very talented offenses going at it today, But Kevin Gausman (5-3, 2.51 ERA) has been awesome, and Devin Smeltzer (2-0, 1.50 ERA) has been very stingy in giving up runs. I think that both pitchers hold it together long enough to keep the run total under 9, so take the Under 8.5 in this one.

confidence level: 2

arizona diamondbacks @ cincinnati reds (10)

(for game on 6/6)

Q's pick: under 10 runs

This projected run total is just too high. In the last 8 games involving the Diamondbacks, only 2 of them have gone over 10 runs, and although the Reds are scoring a ton of runs right now, in their last 9 games, only 2 games have gone over this total. If this game ends up defying the weather, which is also a factor, take the under 10 runs. I just do not see it getting there.

confidence level: 3

new york mets @ san diego padres (7.5)

(for game on 6/6)

Q's pick: over 7.5 (-120)

Both offenses are too good for the projected run total to sit below 8. If 2 or 3 balls leave "the yard", which I believe is likely, it will only take some base runners, and a few timely hits, to drive this over 7 runs. Take the Over 7.5 projected run total.